COVID-19 SCIENCE

# Case reporting defies logic

Case reporting is unscientific and highly flawed because case numbers are influenced by testing. Testing numbers have rapidly increased driven by fear in the hope of controlling the virus.

Imagine that everyone is infected in a population. If on day one, we test one person the cases are 1. If, on day 2 we test 2 people, then there will be 2 cases. If on day 100 we test 100, then there will be 100 cases. We will conclude that cases grew by a factor of 100. The reality is no growth because the whole population is infected.

When cases are dependent on test numbers, then these must be factored in. This is achieved with case positivity, or proportion of cases relative to tests performed. For the above example, case positivity would be 100% all the time, which is correct. No growth, just 100%.

Figure 1 show cases for the United Kingdom as at 10th February 2021 which does not factor in testing numbers.

Figure 1: Cases for the United Kingdom as at 10th February 2021

Figure 2 shows case positivity (proportion) for the UK as at 10th February 2021 which factors in testing numbers.

Figure 2: Case positivity (proportion) for the UK as at 9th February 2021

Please note that due to unavailability of test-data early in the pandemic the first wave is truncated.

Referring to Figure 2, by taking testing numbers into account, the second and third waves are a fraction of the first wave. The third wave is slightly higher, but we should not conclude due to higher contagiousness. This is a period where infections are usually higher.

Referring back to Figure 1, the world panicked due to the rising case numbers which did not factor in the increase in testing numbers.