COVID-19 SCIENCE

How much more contagious is the Kent virus really?

By Dr Juergen Ude | February 12th 2021 According to reports, the Kent Virus could be up to 70% more contagious and 30% more lethal than other countries.

"Kent coronavirus variant set to ‘sweep world’, says UK scientist"

Countries such as Australia and States such as Victoria have gone in a state of panic where lockdowns are instigated because of one or two cases once again causing unbearable stress for many. The justification is the firm belief in the deadliness of the virus which globally has killed 2 in 10000 people (if we can believe the reported deaths numbers which have no scientific basis.)

How has the contagiousness been determined? Models

"February 12th 2021 - New variant of SARS-CoV-2 in UK causes surge of COVID-19"

Models are always wrong(1) because it is impossible to define life mathematically. To use models as evidence is unscientific. Evidence MUST BE data driven.

Figure 1 show CASES for the United Kingdom as at 10th February 2021

The first wave is dwarfed by the second and third waves, the last which includes the Kent Virus. This has resulted in concluding that the Kent Virus is more contagious, and the information has likely influenced models.

However, case reporting is unscientific and highly flawed because case numbers are influenced by testing. Testing numbers have rapidly increased driven by fear in the hope of controlling the virus.

Figure 2 shows CASE POSITIVITY (proportion) for the UK as at 10th February 2021.

Because of unavailability of test-data early in the pandemic the first wave is truncated. Now the situation is reversed. By taking test numbers into account the second third waves are a fraction of the first wave. The third wave is slightly higher, but we should not conclude due to higher contagiousness. This is a period where infections are usually higher.