COVID-19 SCIENCE

# Why are the alleged highly contagious Kent virus infections coming down in the UK? Vaccine?

Figure 1 Shows the daily new cases for UK up to February 3rd 2021

Figure 1: Daily new cases for UK up to February 3rd 2021.

However, because case numbers are dependent on test numbers such display of infections is unscientific. Please note how the first wave was dwarfed by the second and third wave (includes Kent)

Figure 2 are % case positives which have factored in test numbers.

Figure 2: % Case positives for UK up to February 3rd, 2021.

Please note that now the first wave dwarfs the second and third wave, as expected if we believe immunity has been created during the first wave. If we treat case positivity as an estimate of prevalence, then it does appear that 30% of the UK population has had prior immunity.

Case positivity is only a crude estimate of prevalence because testing is very biased. However, with the large number of tests it should be sufficiently accurate.

The question asked is has the vaccination to date had an impact on infections in the UK?

The answer will not be conclusive because vaccination has only recently started, but we will try to obtain an insight into a possible effect or absence of effect.

Figure 3 shows the cumulative number of vaccinated people extracted from the Covid-19 vaccination programme in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia on the 14th of Feb 2021

Figure 3: Cumulative number of vaccinated people extracted from the COVID-19 vaccination programme in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia on the 14th of Feb 2021
Figure 4 Case positivity’s for the same period.

Referring to Figure 4, case positivity peaked on the 29th of December 2020. At that stage only one million people were vaccinated, which is 1.5% of the population. Thereafter infections came steadily down with no change in slope even though vaccinations increased 13 times as much during the same period. We would have expected a change in slope. Instead, we observe no change in slope which is consistent with observations throughout the analysis whenever cases came down, even without intervention.