COVID-19 SCIENCE

The UK at one stage had 20 million Covid-19 infections and recently 3 million. Victoria, Australia with only 6 million people at one stage had 120, 000 cases?

By Dr Juergen Ude | February 15th 2021
Yes, there is high likelihood. The problem is that cases are dependent on test numbers and hence test numbers need to be factored in.

This is done by reporting case positivity or proportions. Proportions are an estimate of prevalence. When this estimate is used then we do get such high numbers. With such high numbers one must ask why have there not been more hospital presentations if the virus is so harmful?

Of course, this estimate is crude because testing is not scientific for prevalence determination. It is highly biased. Also, there is a delay between a test and when the results become available which distorts the prevalence estimate somewhat. Early in a pandemic the estimate is less accurate because test numbers are lower, however once test numbers are large the error is less.

Are the estimates reasonable? For the flu there are over a billion global cases. In Australia more than half the population (12 million) suffer with a common cold each year, up to 3 times. The common cold virus (actually several) is the most prevalent infectious virus. The corona virus is of the same family as the common cold.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr Juergen Ude has a certificate in applied chemistry, a degree in applied science majoring in statistics and operations research as top student, a masters in economics with high distinctions in every subject, and a PhD in computer modelling and algorithms. He has lectured at Monash University on subjects of data analysis, computer modelling, and quality & reliability.

Prior to founding his own company (Qtech International Pty Ltd), Dr Ude worked as a statistician and operations researcher for 18 years in management roles having saved employers millions of dollars through his AI and ML algorithms. Through Qtech International, Dr Ude has developed data analysis solutions in over 40 countries for leading corporations such as Alcoa, Black and Decker, Coca-Cola Amatil, US Vision and many more. Additionally he has developed campaign analysis software for politicians.

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